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Poll: Democrat leads N.J. Senate race (AP)

05.10.2006 09:00 Around the world - Source:

TRENTON, N.J. - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez has opened a slight lead over Republican Tom Kean Jr., helped by Democrats rallying around their candidate, according to a poll released Thursday.
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The Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind poll gives Menendez a 42 percent to 37 percent edge over Kean among likely voters. The lead grows to 7 percentage points if voters who are leaning toward a particular candidate are included.

The telephone poll of 514 probable voters taken Sept. 27 through Oct. 2 has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

With about a month to go until the election, 81 percent of Democratic voters say they support Menendez, while only 10 percent of Democrats say they will support Kean. Kean's support among Democrats has tumbled from 19 percent last month, while Menendez had 68 percent support before Labor Day, according to the poll.

In New Jersey, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans, and unaffiliated voters far outnumber those of either party.

Polling experts credit Menendez's television ad campaign with boosting his name recognition and helping his poll numbers. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Sept. 28 and a Quinnipiac University poll of Sept. 20 both had the race a virtual tie, as did the previous two PublicMind polls, released July 20 and Aug. 30.

"Now that Menendez is finally getting Democrats behind him, Kean's support across the aisle is evaporating," said Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson. "The party lines have been drawn, and in New Jersey that typically helps the Democrats."

Menendez, a 14-year congressman, was appointed in January by Gov. Jon Corzine to serve out the remaining year of Corzine's Senate term.

Kean, the son of former Gov. Thomas Kean, has accused Menendez of being too indebted to Corzine. Menendez, for his part, has tried to link Kean to President Bush and the war in Iraq.

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